Machine learning and gambling

Machine learning can assist to clean up online gambling by detecting cheaters although it might also be working against you. AI can evaluate player gambling behavior and provide highly tailored game ideas. Customized gaming may make it more interesting for gamblers to continue betting, but definitely not to help them win. The house always wins, whether we’re talking about online or in a bricks and mortar casino. Gamblers may have more motivation to bet longer and lose more in this new machine learning-driven gambling future.

Ultimately it all comes down to calculated probabilities.  A good example of something that people often fall for is the following: People frequently assume that if a number has appeared more than ten times, there is a good possibility that it will appear again on the eleventh count. This, however, is not the case. The chances of seeing the same number again are the same. This fallacy is primarily psychological in nature.

The chance of a number falling ten times in a row is less than 0.1 percent. As a result, if the same number has fallen nine times, we can be confident that another number will fall the tenth time. The important aspect to remember is that even though one number has already been called nine times, the chances of the second number falling are still 50/50.

Casinos

The majority of casinos adhere to the maximum bet policy. This forbids any player from continuing to play after a specified amount of time has passed. If you want to beat the casino, make sure you keep betting on the same chip.

The highest odds you can receive involve the house taking between 1.5 and 5% off the top. This is for games like craps, baccarat and slot machines. In some casinos, it can even be as much as 20%. You can generally expect to get back roughly 95 to 98 cents on the dollar with the money that you bet. Nevertheless, regardless of your choice, you will almost certainly lose money over time in casinos.

The casino business believes that artificial intelligence aids players by detecting cheaters more quickly. That may be true but there is another side to this topic.

Who uses Machine Learning in Gambling?

Craig Smith, a well-known former New York Times correspondent wanted to see if he could use machine learning to get better results when betting on the horses. Craig left journalism to pursue this aim and used a no-code ML solution called Akkio to test the performance of ML in horse racing. He wanted to demonstrate how their approach can promote AI use. Most importantly, he also wanted to highlight how it is already enhancing productivity in essential but monotonous tasks. Akkio is developed for business analysts that want quick insights into their data without having to hire engineers and data scientists. It turned out that it was also useful for what Smith wanted. In fact, he was able to double his money in minutes by using an ML recommended system, produced by Akkio.

Smith worked with Chris Rossi during this period. Rossi is a horse racing expert who assisted in the development of a data system that was subsequently purchased by a horse racing data conglomerate. He now works as a consultant to people who work in the horse-racing industry. Amongst them are teams of quantitative statisticians who use machine learning to game the races. Rossi believes it is essentially the suckers against the data scientists in horse racing gambling.

Sports Betting

Sports betting was once seen as a legal grey area in the United States. Then, in 2018, the United States Supreme Court overturned a 1992 federal rule. This really paved the way for the states to allow the practice, previously only permitted in Nevada. This came at a time when casinos had closed their doors and people were looking for ways to fill their leisure time. This led to the explosion of online gambling and sports betting. Since the start of the coronavirus’ outbreak, shares of DraftKings has increased by 350 percent, making the company worth almost $22 billion.

You could, like Craig Smith, use Machine Learning to your advantage. Unfortunately the house will develop its use of ML to counter any advantage you may briefly have. To calculate the odds of a bet, bookmakers utilize their own machine learning algorithms.

As a result, while your own machine learning model directs you towards the more likely outcomes, you may always end up with minimal benefit. Developing ML models for sports betting is useful for practising and improving your data science skills. It isn’t something you could do in the long run as part of a successful gambling method though.

What we have seen thus far is that bookmakers profit by restricting payouts. To do so, they must adjust the odds effectively and will need to know the probabilities. It is impossible to beat a good bookmaker in the long run. Despite that, bookmakers are not infallible. There are two ways to overcome them based on better probability estimation:

1 If you consistently make good bets you will be able to compensate for the payout margin they have built-in.
2 If you only bet on games where you know the bookmaker made a mistake and the odds are good; you will have a better chance of winning.

In reality, strategy one is merely a variant of strategy two. Maybe you can predict the result of each game more accurately than the bookies. However, you are unlikely to make a profit because the bookmakers will be close to getting the odds correct.

How to Build A Top Quality Gambling App

If you are wondering how to build a top-quality gambling app the best advice is “Do the same thing as the competition, but better”.

Most content in a gambling app is of roughly the same quality. Customers can find nearly identical bets and games on each online sportsbook or casino site. Now that customers are aware of this they are more likely to choose apps based on quality rather than its content. For example, if people want to gamble on the Grand National, the question is not which app would allow them to do so, but which one will provide the best overall experience.

In view of the increased series of rules and regulations entering the market, gambling app quality is only becoming more crucial to customers. Customers have less tolerance when an app does not work properly. And even less so when they have to deal with variables such as affordability, identification, and other security procedures. For examples of high performing gambling apps you can check out our top 10 mobile casinos.

Customers can easily compare their online encounters because each gambling app requires customers to go through the same processes. Customers will notice if one app takes longer than another to run pre-payout account verification checks, for example. With competitors having to abide by the same rules as yourself is actually an advantage. If you can improve on something that everyone else is doing, you are ahead of the market.

So, how would a new brand address common difficulties in a way that distinguishes them from its rivals?

Here are ten different ways for you to make a bold statement when it comes to building a top-quality gambling app and introducing it to the market.

Prepare your gambling app for regulations

If you have expected something, you are in charge of how to plan for it. Whereas if you haven’t you will need to adapt quickly. You may then find you are wasting precious time and resources. Anticipating upcoming legislation is the first step toward creating outstanding online gambling services.

This could entail getting ready for either regulatory changes that have already been announced or ones that appear to be on the horizon. Gambling companies can thus avoid having to ditch their product development plans. Or even forgo planned feature launches to accommodate last-minute modifications.

Have your lawyer interact with the gambling app directly

The most difficult component of responding to changes in the law is turning the new regulations into product features. For example, how can you enforce a rule that requires customers to be reminded to take a break every 30 minutes from a product standpoint? Would you send them a push message as a reminder, or would you have a yes/no popup ask whether they want to continue? Maybe you would just stop the game? It is critical to have a lawyer who understands the industry and its regulations. Aside from ensuring that a product satisfies standards, this will prevent the design team from restricting customers in ways that are unnecessary.

Create a safer gambling environment

The greatest online gambling experiences come from companies that make safer gambling an integral part of their business model. You get the distinct feeling they are designing each element with consumer safety in mind. Operators can act swiftly in the confidence that safer gaming is already in place. This frees up more time for them to focus on other concerns. Customers also deliberately seek out gambling apps that will keep them safe. Platform safety and trustworthiness are major criteria affecting bettors’ choice of gambling app.

Create a tech stack that is modular

If online gambling products are to function in a constantly evolving, worldwide regulatory context, they must be adaptable. You need a tech stack that allows you to design features in a modular approach. You should be able to modify or turn them off for different markets. Operators should design their technology so that they have a core offering and may add features from a larger pool of options. This benefits gambling enterprises in two ways. First, developers may change specific features without worrying about how it affects the rest of the app. Secondly, they can simply add or remove features depending on the requirements of different consumer groups.

Go beyond translation to localize

Modular software is especially useful when it comes to localization. If specific casino games are only legal in some countries gambling companies can turn on and off groups of games as needed. Similarly, while build-a-bet services are popular in the United Kingdom, they have not taken off as well in other countries. Collaborating with native speakers while conducting customer research is important to identify local perspectives. The way a question is posed can influence the answer given. Gambling operators must therefore ensure that survey questions are posed in a way that is sensitive to local conventions if they are to avoid drawing incorrect conclusions when collecting response data.

Pay attention to the customer

All gambling companies should put more money into usability testing. Listening to your consumers can result in some of the most effective features of an app. A good example is when Sky Betting & Gaming originally established their MyBets function. Customers were using the Sky Wager app to place a bet, then closing the app and going to a competitor to cash out. This was discovered using a survey they conducted on customer betting behavior on weekends.

Determine when less is more

When a sportsbook operator introduced a bet that was not accessible anywhere else a decade ago; it was a point of differentiation from their competitors. The sector has now achieved saturation, however, all operators now offer a suite of extensive betting variants. It is the same situation in the online casino world, where anyone provider can offer over 1000 games. Giving clients too many alternatives can diminish engagement though. Gaming operators should assess whether deleting some markets, even if it means losing them, will result in an overall positive boost.

Contribute to discovery

With so many markets to pick from you should be encouraging users to filter rather than scroll. By doing this, you will prevent users from quitting the app; when bets or games are not of interest. This is especially true in the mobile world, where small screens make displaying multiple alternatives, challenging. You can further personalize offerings by grouping markets together and delivering only the markets that users are interested in. This may be achieved by rearranging them on the screen for example. Many operators provide the same bets and games. That is why elements like quick navigation and pertinent recommendations will become your more critical differentiators.